· Analysis updated 09:58 UTC
Etar VT II vs Litex Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Etar VT II and 1.58 for Litex, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Etar VT II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Etar VT II win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etar VT II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Litex away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Etar VT II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Etar VT II and 1.58 for Litex, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.9%
Recent form
Etar VT II
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus Malchika · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademik Svishtov · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom Berkovitsa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 0-0 (D)
Litex
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus Malchika · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Etar VT II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademik Svishtov · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Bdin | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Chavdar Troyan | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Pavlikeni | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Etar VT II win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.