· Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Ethiopia Bunna vs Halaba Ketema Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Ethiopia Bunna and 1.30 for Halaba Ketema, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Halaba Ketema the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Halaba Ketema win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ethiopia Bunna home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Halaba Ketema to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 17% / 29% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Ethiopia Bunna and 1.30 for Halaba Ketema, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 33%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.4%
- 0–015.0%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
Ethiopia Bunna
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mebrat Hayl · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Negelle Arsi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kedus Giorgis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheger Ketema · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Welayta Dicha · 0-0 (D)
Halaba Ketema
- 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fasil Ketema · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahardar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Mebrat Hayl | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Bunna | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Halaba Ketema win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.