· Analysis updated 02:42 UTC
Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.56 expected goals for Ethiopia Bunna and 1.29 for Negelle Arsi, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Negelle Arsi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Negelle Arsi win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
0.56 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ethiopia Bunna home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Negelle Arsi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Negelle Arsi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 16% / 29% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.56 goals for Ethiopia Bunna and 1.29 for Negelle Arsi, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.2%
- 0–015.7%
- 0–213.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 1–08.8%
Recent form
Ethiopia Bunna
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mebrat Hayl · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Negelle Arsi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kedus Giorgis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheger Ketema · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Welayta Dicha · 0-0 (D)
Negelle Arsi
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethiopia Bunna · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mebrat Hayl · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kedus Giorgis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mekelle Kenema · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Mebrat Hayl | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Bunna | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Negelle Arsi win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.