· Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Ethiopian Medhin vs Hadiya Hosaena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Ethiopian Medhin and 0.59 for Hadiya Hosaena, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Ethiopian Medhin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ethiopian Medhin win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ethiopian Medhin home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ethiopian Medhin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 34% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Ethiopian Medhin and 0.59 for Hadiya Hosaena, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 22% and both teams to score at 29%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.3%
- 0–019.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–010.5%
Recent form
Ethiopian Medhin
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamo Chencha · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fasil Ketema · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Suhul Shire · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mekelakeya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dire Dawa Kenema · 1-0 (W)
Hadiya Hosaena
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Mebrat Hayl | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Bunna | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ethiopian Medhin win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.