· Analysis updated 20:55 UTC
Ethnikos Latsion vs Iraklis Yerolakkou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ethnikos Latsion and 0.95 for Iraklis Yerolakkou, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Ethnikos Latsion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ethnikos Latsion win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ethnikos Latsion home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iraklis Yerolakkou away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ethnikos Latsion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Ethnikos Latsion and 0.95 for Iraklis Yerolakkou, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
Ethnikos Latsion
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs APEA · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Digenis Morphou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AE Zakakiou · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-21T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahironas / Onisilos · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis Yerolakkou · 0-0 (D)
Iraklis Yerolakkou
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ASIL Lysi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayia Napa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Halkanoras · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halkanoras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs APEA · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | ASIL Lysi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Enosis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Doxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | PAEEK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ermis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | APEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Spartakos Kitiou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Ayia Napa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Halkanoras | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | MEAP Nisou | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ethnikos Latsion win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.