· Analysis updated 13:03 UTC
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou vs Apollon Pontou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou and 1.45 for Apollon Pontou, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apollon Pontou away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou and 1.45 for Apollon Pontou, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Feraios · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthrakikos · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Pontou · 2-3 (L)
Apollon Pontou
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthrakikos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finikas Polichnis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Agiou Nikolaou | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mpam | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Iraklis Therm. | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Polykastrou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kilkisiakos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Panedessaikos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.