· Analysis updated 07:21 UTC
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou vs Elassona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou and 1.41 for Elassona, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elassona away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou and 1.41 for Elassona, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Feraios · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthrakikos · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Pontou · 2-3 (L)
Elassona
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Pontou · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.