· Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Ethnikos Piraeus vs Pyrgos 1968 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ethnikos Piraeus and 0.80 for Pyrgos 1968, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Ethnikos Piraeus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ethnikos Piraeus win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ethnikos Piraeus home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pyrgos 1968 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ethnikos Piraeus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 29% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Ethnikos Piraeus and 0.80 for Pyrgos 1968, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.3%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Ethnikos Piraeus
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amfiali · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs PAO Rouf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zakynthos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyrgos 1968 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris Petroupolis · 0-1 (L)
Pyrgos 1968
- 2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Panionios · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ellas Syros · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Larisa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ethnikos Piraeus win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.