· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Etimesgut SK vs Gaziemirspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Etimesgut SK and 0.80 for Gaziemirspor, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Etimesgut SK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Etimesgut SK win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etimesgut SK home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Etimesgut SK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Etimesgut SK and 0.80 for Gaziemirspor, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Etimesgut SK
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Balıkesirspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskişehirspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uşak Spor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Alanya 1221 FK · 3-0 (W)
Gaziemirspor
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karsiyaka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Denizli İYG · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucaspor 1928 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Söke 1970 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayvalikgucu · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nilüfer Belediye | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Eskişehirspor | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 14 |
| 4 | Bigaspor | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Etimesgut SK | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Ayvalikgucu | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Balıkesirspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Karsiyaka | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Gaziemirspor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Altay | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Söke 1970 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Uşak Spor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Bucaspor 1928 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Alanya 1221 FK | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Denizli İYG | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Akşehirspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | Kepezspor | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Etimesgut SK win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.