· Analysis updated 20:25 UTC
Etimesgut SK vs Karsiyaka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Etimesgut SK and 0.60 for Karsiyaka, a combined total of 1.77. That distribution gives Etimesgut SK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Etimesgut SK win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etimesgut SK home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Etimesgut SK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 31% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Etimesgut SK and 0.60 for Karsiyaka, a combined 1.77 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 31%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.0%
- 0–017.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–110.1%
Recent form
Etimesgut SK
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Balıkesirspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskişehirspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uşak Spor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Alanya 1221 FK · 3-0 (W)
Karsiyaka
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nilüfer Belediye | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Etimesgut SK | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Balıkesirspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Eskişehirspor | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 6 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Ayvalikgucu | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Bigaspor | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Karsiyaka | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Gaziemirspor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Altay | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Söke 1970 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Uşak Spor | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Bucaspor 1928 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Denizli İYG | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Kepezspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Alanya 1221 FK | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Akşehirspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -15 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Etimesgut SK win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.