Umuganda Stadium · Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
Etincelles vs Marines Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Etincelles and 0.76 for Marines, a combined total of 1.69. That distribution gives Etincelles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etincelles home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marines away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.5%
- 1–017.1%
- 0–114.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
Etincelles
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Musanze · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunrise · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 4-0 (W)
Marines
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs APR · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Muhanga · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Musanze · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 3-2 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2025-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 0-2 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2025-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 0-0 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2024-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 0-2 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2024-01-27T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 2-2 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2023-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 0-1 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2023-01-29T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 2-1 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2022-11-20T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 0-3 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2022-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 1-4 Marines (National Soccer League)
- 2022-01-15T13:00:00.000Z · Etincelles 0-1 Marines (National Soccer League)
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Mukura | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Gorilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Amagaju | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Police | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Gasogi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.