· Analysis updated 07:51 UTC
Etoile de Kivu vs Céleste Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Etoile de Kivu and 0.45 for Céleste, a combined total of 1.00. That distribution gives Etoile de Kivu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 30%, with the draw at 46%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 8% for over 2.5 goals and 15% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 37%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 30% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw
46.4% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Céleste away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 46% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Etoile de Kivu and 0.45 for Céleste, a combined 1.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 8% and both teams to score at 15%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 37%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
54%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–036.7%
- 1–020.2%
- 0–116.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–05.6%
Recent form
Etoile de Kivu
Céleste
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Renaissance · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Mk de Kinshasa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TP Mazembe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Eloi Lupopo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Maniema Union · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Don Bosco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Céleste | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | FC Renaissance | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lubumbashi Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Butras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Blessing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Saint-Luc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 15% and over 2.5 goals at 8%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.