Ngoma Stadium · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Etoile de l'Est vs Bugesera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.59 expected goals for Etoile de l'Est and 1.15 for Bugesera, a combined total of 1.74. That distribution gives Bugesera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bugesera win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
0.59 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etoile de l'Est home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bugesera away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bugesera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 19% / 32% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.59 goals for Etoile de l'Est and 1.15 for Bugesera, a combined 1.74 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.1%
- 0–017.5%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–010.4%
Recent form
Etoile de l'Est
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mukura · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gicumbi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kigali · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 0-3 (L)
Bugesera
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gasogi United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kiyovu Sports · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rutsiro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Gasogi United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bugesera win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.