· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Etoile de l'Est vs Gorilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.53 expected goals for Etoile de l'Est and 0.86 for Gorilla, a combined total of 1.39. That distribution gives Gorilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
78.6% probability
Expected goals
0.53 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etoile de l'Est home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gorilla away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gorilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 21% / 38% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.53 goals for Etoile de l'Est and 0.86 for Gorilla, a combined 1.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.0%
- 0–121.4%
- 1–013.3%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–29.2%
Recent form
Etoile de l'Est
- 2024-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-04-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marines · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-04-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
Gorilla
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayon Sports · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kiyovu Sports · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Merreikh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Mukura | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Gorilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Amagaju | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Police | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Gasogi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 78.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.