Ngoma District Stadium · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Etoile de l'Est vs Mukura Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Etoile de l'Est and 1.40 for Mukura, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Mukura the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mukura win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etoile de l'Est home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mukura to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 17% / 28% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Etoile de l'Est and 1.40 for Mukura, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–212.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 1–08.2%
Recent form
Etoile de l'Est
- 2024-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-04-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marines · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-04-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
Mukura
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amagaju · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gicumbi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-02-03T13:00:00.000Z · Etoile de l'Est 0-2 Mukura (National Soccer League)
- 2023-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · Etoile de l'Est 3-0 Mukura (National Soccer League)
- 2022-03-19T13:00:00.000Z · Etoile de l'Est 0-0 Mukura (National Soccer League)
- 2021-12-04T13:00:00.000Z · Etoile de l'Est 0-4 Mukura (National Soccer League)
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Mukura | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Gorilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Amagaju | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Police | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Gasogi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mukura win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.