· Analysis updated 23:25 UTC
Étoile du Congo vs Etoile de Kivu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for Étoile du Congo and 0.44 for Etoile de Kivu, a combined total of 1.12. That distribution gives Étoile du Congo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 43%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 10% for over 2.5 goals and 18% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 33%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
79.7% probability
Expected goals
0.69 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 37% / 43% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.69 goals for Étoile du Congo and 0.44 for Etoile de Kivu, a combined 1.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 10% and both teams to score at 18%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 33%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 80% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
57%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–032.6%
- 1–022.3%
- 0–114.2%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Étoile du Congo
- 2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JSK · 1-0 (W)
Etoile de Kivu
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Don Bosco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Céleste | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Lubumbashi Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Butras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Blessing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | FC Renaissance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Saint-Luc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 79.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 18% and over 2.5 goals at 10%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.