ETSV Hamburg vs Teutonia Ottensen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.10 expected goals for ETSV Hamburg and 1.96 for Teutonia Ottensen, a combined total of 5.05. That distribution gives ETSV Hamburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

ETSV Hamburg win

60.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.10 – 1.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ETSV Hamburg home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Teutonia Ottensen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

ETSV Hamburg win61%

Draw16%

Teutonia Ottensen win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals88%

Over 3.5 goals74%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

3–16.2%
3–26.1%
2–16.0%
2–25.9%
4–14.8%

Recent form

ETSV Hamburg

2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 4-6 (L)
2026-10-04T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nikola Tesla · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Harksheide · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Buchholz · 1-4 (L)

Teutonia Ottensen

2026-09-29T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Buchholz · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nikola Tesla · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Norderstedt II · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · ETSV Hamburg 2-1 Teutonia Ottensen (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2026-03-20T18:45:00.000Z · ETSV Hamburg 0-1 Teutonia Ottensen (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2025-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · ETSV Hamburg 3-1 Teutonia Ottensen (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2025-01-26T13:00:00.000Z · ETSV Hamburg 2-4 Teutonia Ottensen (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-06-29T14:00:00.000Z · ETSV Hamburg 2-0 Teutonia Ottensen (Friendlies Clubs)

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	13	9	2	2	13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	7	5	1	11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	7	2	3	16	23
5	Niendorfer TSV	13	7	2	4	3	23
6	Altona 93	12	6	3	3	5	21
7	HT16	12	6	2	4	13	20
8	Pinneberg	12	6	2	4	6	20
9	Sasel	13	6	2	5	-1	20
10	Süderelbe	13	5	3	5	3	18
11	HEBC	13	5	0	8	-4	15
12	Buchholz	12	4	3	5	-9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	3	2	7	-2	11
16	Concordia	13	3	2	8	-15	11
17	Harksheide	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is ETSV Hamburg win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.