Stade Am Deich · Analysis updated 06:48 UTC
Etzella Ettelbruck vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Etzella Ettelbruck and 2.19 for Racing FC Union Luxembourg, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Racing FC Union Luxembourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 2.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etzella Ettelbruck home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing FC Union Luxembourg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 14% / 19% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Etzella Ettelbruck and 2.19 for Racing FC Union Luxembourg, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.2%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–38.2%
Recent form
Etzella Ettelbruck
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Schengen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UNA Strassen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hosingen · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Progres Niederkorn · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 30 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 24 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 22 |
| 5 | Atert Bissen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | US Hostert | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 8 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -39 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing FC Union Luxembourg win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.