Stade Am Deich · Analysis updated 08:29 UTC
Etzella Ettelbruck vs UN Kaerjeng 97 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Etzella Ettelbruck and 1.58 for UN Kaerjeng 97, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Etzella Ettelbruck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Etzella Ettelbruck win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Etzella Ettelbruck home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UN Kaerjeng 97 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
Etzella Ettelbruck
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Schengen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
UN Kaerjeng 97
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Syra Mensdorf · 9-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs F91 Dudelange · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Rosport · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 0-1 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
- 2023-04-05T18:00:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 3-0 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
- 2022-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 1-1 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
- 2015-04-08T17:30:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 0-3 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
- 2014-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 3-2 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
- 2014-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 1-3 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
- 2013-10-20T16:00:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 0-3 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
- 2013-04-28T14:00:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 3-5 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
- 2012-10-28T15:00:00.000Z · Etzella Ettelbruck 3-1 UN Kaerjeng 97 (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Etzella Ettelbruck win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.