Can Drago · Referee P. Torres · Analysis updated 13:58 UTC
Europa Fc vs Hércules Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Europa Fc and 1.04 for Hércules, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Hércules the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.7% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Europa Fc home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hércules away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.5%
- 0–015.8%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Europa Fc
- 2026-10-11T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Algeciras · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Majadahonda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hércules · 1-2 (L)
Hércules
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Sant Andreu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Águilas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · Europa Fc 1-2 Hércules (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2026-02-06T20:15:00.000Z · Europa Fc 1-1 Hércules (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-11-08T15:15:00.000Z · Europa Fc 0-1 Hércules (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-03-03T17:00:00.000Z · Europa Fc 0-0 Hércules (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2023-10-22T10:00:00.000Z · Europa Fc 1-0 Hércules (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Villarreal II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Real Murcia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Cartagena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Real Jaén | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Alcorcon | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Hércules | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Real Madrid II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Huesca | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Antequera | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Gimnastic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Algeciras | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Sant Andreu | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 19 | Juventud Torremolinos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Teruel | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.