Can Drago · Referee M. R. Marco · Analysis updated 20:56 UTC
Europa Fc vs Rayo Majadahonda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Europa Fc and 1.04 for Rayo Majadahonda, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Rayo Majadahonda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.2% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Europa Fc home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Majadahonda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rayo Majadahonda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 31% / 31% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Europa Fc and 1.04 for Rayo Majadahonda, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.9%
- 0–014.3%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Europa Fc
- 2026-10-23T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cartagena · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Algeciras · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Majadahonda · 1-0 (W)
Rayo Majadahonda
- 2026-10-11T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Teruel · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cartagena · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Cartagena | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Alcorcon | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Algeciras | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Hércules | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Huesca | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Madrid II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Antequera | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 13 | Gimnastic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 | Sant Andreu | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 19 | Juventud Torremolinos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Teruel | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.