· Analysis updated 17:47 UTC
Europa II vs Cornellà Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Europa II and 1.33 for Cornellà, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Cornellà the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Europa II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cornellà away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cornellà to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 28% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Europa II and 1.33 for Cornellà, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Europa II
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montañesa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinenc · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Escala · 0-2 (L)
Cornellà
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Peralada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pobla Mafumet · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mollerussa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Hospitalet · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Pobla Mafumet | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Vilanova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Martinenc | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlètic Lleida | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Grama | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Europa II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Vilassar Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | San Cristóbal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.