Europa Point Stadium · Analysis updated 07:27 UTC
Europa Point vs Magpies Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Europa Point and 2.07 for Magpies, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Magpies the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Magpies win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 2.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Europa Point home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Magpies away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Magpies to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Europa Point and 2.07 for Magpies, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–27.0%
- 0–16.8%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
Europa Point
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hound Dogs · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions Gibraltar · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 2-2 (D)
Magpies
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs College 1975 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hound Dogs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lynx · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions Gibraltar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Magpies win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.