Europa Point Stadium · Analysis updated 06:50 UTC
Europa Point vs St Joseph S Fc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Europa Point and 3.54 for St Joseph S Fc, a combined total of 4.71. That distribution gives St Joseph S Fc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St Joseph S Fc win
80.6% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 3.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Europa Point home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St Joseph S Fc away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St Joseph S Fc to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 8% / 11% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Europa Point and 3.54 for St Joseph S Fc, a combined 4.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.8%
- 1–46.9%
- 0–36.6%
- 1–26.6%
- 0–45.9%
Recent form
Europa Point
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hound Dogs · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions Gibraltar · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 2-2 (D)
St Joseph S Fc
- 2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hound Dogs · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions Gibraltar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mons Calpe · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Joseph S Fc | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 18 |
| 2 | Magpies | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 17 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Europa Point | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Europa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Lions Gibraltar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -12 | 4 |
| 10 | Lynx | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 1 |
| 11 | Hound Dogs | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -25 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St Joseph S Fc win, at 80.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.