Estadio Sausalito · Referee R. Gonzalez · Analysis updated 11:51 UTC
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.92 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Everton de Vina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Everton de Vina win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Everton de Vina home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
D. La Serena away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton de Vina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Everton de Vina and 0.92 for D. La Serena, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 52.2% vs market 42.4%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.9% | 78.0% | 1.28 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 52.3% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.1% | 25.2% | 3.97 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.6% | 21.9% | 4.57 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.1% | 47.1% | 2.12 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Everton de Vina
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nublense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 0-1 (L)
D. La Serena
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 55 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | Nublense | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -8 | 35 |
| 8 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 32 |
| 10 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 11 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -23 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Everton de Vina win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.