Walton Hall Park · Referee K. Hurn · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Everton U21 vs Middlesbrough U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Everton U21 and 1.40 for Middlesbrough U21, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Everton U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Everton U21 win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Everton U21 home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Middlesbrough U21 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Everton U21 and 1.40 for Middlesbrough U21, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Everton U21
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Boreham Wood · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartlepool · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Milan II · 1-2 (L)
Middlesbrough U21
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Genk U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds United U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Tamworth · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League 2 Division One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Fulham U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Norwich City U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Manchester United U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Reading U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Leeds United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Brighton U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 | West Ham United U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | Stoke City U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Everton U21 win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.