Hill Dickinson Stadium · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Everton vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Everton and 1.32 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelsea away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 51.6% vs market 39.9%, edge +11.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 39.9% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +11.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.9% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 30.1% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.5% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 42.4% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.9% | 69.5% | 1.44 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 73.1% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.1% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -11.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Everton
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)
Chelsea
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T17:30:00.000Z · Everton 3-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2025-04-26T11:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2024-12-22T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2024-04-15T19:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-6 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2023-12-10T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 2-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2023-03-18T17:30:00.000Z · Everton 2-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2022-08-06T16:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2022-05-01T13:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2021-12-16T19:45:00.000Z · Everton 1-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.