Everton vs Coventry Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Everton and 0.55 for Coventry, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Everton win

61.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Coventry away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 25% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Everton and 0.55 for Coventry, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Everton win62%

Draw25%

Coventry win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–019.0%
2–014.7%
0–012.2%
1–110.4%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Everton

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)

Coventry

2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2024-07-30T18:45:00.000Z · Everton 0-3 Coventry (Friendlies Clubs)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Everton win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.