Hill Dickinson Stadium · Referee Stuart Attwell, England · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Everton vs Ipswich Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Everton and 0.86 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Everton win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ipswich away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Everton and 0.86 for Ipswich, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 54.7% vs market 43.7%, edge +11.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.7% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +11.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.5% | 74.3% | 1.35 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 52.9% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.7% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 79.0% | 79.0% | 1.27 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 21.4% | 21.0% | 4.76 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.3% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -11.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Everton
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)
Ipswich
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 2-2 Ipswich (Premier League)
- 2024-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 2-0 Ipswich (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Everton win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.