Everton vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Everton and 1.10 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 29% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Everton and 1.10 for Liverpool, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Everton win35%

Draw29%

Liverpool win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–012.2%
0–112.2%
0–011.1%
2–17.4%

Recent form

Everton

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)

Liverpool

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
2025-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · Everton 1-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
2025-04-02T19:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
2025-02-12T19:30:00.000Z · Everton 2-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
2024-04-24T19:00:00.000Z · Everton 2-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
2023-10-21T11:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
2023-02-13T20:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
2022-09-03T11:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
2022-04-24T15:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
2021-12-01T20:15:00.000Z · Everton 1-4 Liverpool (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.