Everton vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Everton and 1.58 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Manchester City win

48.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manchester City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Everton win26%

Draw25%

Manchester City win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–111.1%
1–29.4%
0–28.8%
1–07.6%

Recent form

Everton

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)

Manchester City

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-04T19:00:00.000Z · Everton 3-3 Manchester City (Premier League)
2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Manchester City (Premier League)
2025-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Manchester City (Premier League)
2024-12-26T12:30:00.000Z · Everton 1-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
2024-02-10T12:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Manchester City (Premier League)
2023-12-27T20:15:00.000Z · Everton 1-3 Manchester City (Premier League)
2023-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-3 Manchester City (Premier League)
2022-12-31T15:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
2022-02-26T17:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
2021-11-21T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-3 Manchester City (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Manchester City win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.