Hill Dickinson Stadium · Referee John Brooks, England · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Everton vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Everton and 1.50 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Manchester United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Manchester United win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Everton and 1.50 for Manchester United, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 49.5% vs market 40.6%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +8.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 74.1% | 1.35 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 3.60 | 26.0% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 26.0% | 25.9% | 3.86 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 48.0% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 54.0% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Everton
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)
Manchester United
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-23T20:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-1 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-11-24T20:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-08-03T21:00:00.000Z · Everton 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League - Summer Series)
- 2025-02-22T12:30:00.000Z · Everton 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-12-01T13:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-4 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-03-09T12:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-11-26T16:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-3 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-04-08T11:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-01-06T20:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-3 Manchester United (FA Cup)
- 2022-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manchester United win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.