Everton vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Everton and 1.14 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Everton win

53.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Everton win53%

Draw23%

Newcastle win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.8%
1–09.4%
2–08.6%
1–26.2%

Recent form

Everton

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)

Newcastle

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · Everton 3-1 Newcastle (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Everton 3-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
2025-11-29T17:30:00.000Z · Everton 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)
2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-10-05T16:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-04-02T18:30:00.000Z · Everton 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-12-07T19:30:00.000Z · Everton 3-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-04-27T18:45:00.000Z · Everton 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)
2022-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · Everton 0-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2022-03-17T19:45:00.000Z · Everton 1-0 Newcastle (Premier League)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Everton win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.