Everton vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Everton and 0.52 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Everton win

61.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 0.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tottenham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 26% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Everton and 0.52 for Tottenham, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Everton win61%

Draw26%

Tottenham win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–019.8%
2–014.8%
0–013.2%
1–110.4%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Everton

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)

Tottenham

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Everton win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.