Hill Dickinson Stadium · Referee T. Bramall · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Everton vs Wolves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Everton and 1.18 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Everton win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wolves away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Everton and 1.18 for Wolves, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Everton
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)
Wolves
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Everton win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.