Goodison Park · Referee A. Parker · Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Everton W vs Charlton Athletic W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Everton W and 0.75 for Charlton Athletic W, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Everton W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Everton W win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Charlton Athletic W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Everton W and 0.75 for Charlton Athletic W, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.4%
Recent form
Everton W
Charlton Athletic W
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham City W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace W · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 19 |
| 2 | Manchester City W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Manchester United W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Arsenal W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Aston Villa W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Brighton W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Liverpool W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Birmingham City W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | West Ham W | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Everton W win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.