· Analysis updated 17:30 UTC
Evesham United vs Bracknell Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Evesham United and 1.28 for Bracknell Town, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Evesham United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Evesham United win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Evesham United home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bracknell Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Evesham United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Evesham United and 1.28 for Bracknell Town, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Evesham United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stratford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 0-3 (L)
Bracknell Town
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Didcot Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havant & Wville · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wimborne Town · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Bath City | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth Parkway | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Taunton Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Basingstoke Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Evesham United | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Sholing | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Evesham United win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.