Sportpark In de Bandert · Referee M. Kok · Analysis updated 15:13 UTC
EVV vs Zwaluw VFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for EVV and 1.24 for Zwaluw VFC, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives EVV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EVV win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EVV home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EVV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for EVV and 1.24 for Zwaluw VFC, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
EVV
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Lisse · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Halsteren · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Groene Ster · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs UDI '19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Poortugaal · 0-1 (L)
Zwaluw VFC
- 2024-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 0-0 (D)
- 2023-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs VV Scherpenzeel · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EVV win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.