· Analysis updated 12:01 UTC
Excelsior Maassluis vs Blauw Geel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.20 for Blauw Geel, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Excelsior Maassluis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Excelsior Maassluis win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Excelsior Maassluis home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Blauw Geel away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior Maassluis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.20 for Blauw Geel, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Excelsior Maassluis
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vvsb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Blauw Geel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportlust '46 · 2-0 (W)
Blauw Geel
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TOGB · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Poortugaal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vvsb · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harkemase Boys | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | ACV | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | VV Scherpenzeel | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | TEC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Zwaluwen | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Poortugaal | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Dongen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | GOES | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | ADO '20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Gemert | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Hoogeveen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Hercules | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 12 | TOGB | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Eemdijk | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 10 |
| 13 | Roosendaal | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | Staphorst | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | UNA | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Dovo | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Excelsior Maassluis win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.