· Analysis updated 22:30 UTC
Excelsior Maassluis vs Sparta Rotterdam II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.47 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Excelsior Maassluis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Excelsior Maassluis home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior Maassluis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.47 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.50 (model 66.1% vs market 60.0%, edge +6.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.50 | 60.0% | 66.1% | 1.51 | +6.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 60.1% | 62.3% | 1.61 | +2.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 42.8% | 43.7% | 2.29 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 37.1% | 37.7% | 2.65 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.35 | 37.9% | 37.7% | 2.65 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 25.1% | 24.6% | 4.07 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 57.2% | 56.3% | 1.78 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 76.4% | 75.4% | 1.33 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.42 | 63.5% | 62.3% | 1.61 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.25 | 40.0% | 33.9% | 2.95 | -6.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Excelsior Maassluis
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vvsb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Blauw Geel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportlust '46 · 2-0 (W)
Sparta Rotterdam II
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Barendrecht · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Koninklijke HFC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.