Excelsior Maassluis vs Sparta Rotterdam II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.47 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Excelsior Maassluis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Excelsior Maassluis or Draw

62.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Excelsior Maassluis win38%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam II win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.8%
1–07.8%

Why the model likes this

Sparta Rotterdam II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior Maassluis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.47 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	2.40	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	3.55	10Bet
Match Result	Away	2.35	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	1.57	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	2.10	10Bet
Goals	Over 3.5	2.25	10Bet
Goals	Under 3.5	1.50	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.42	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.18	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.50	10Bet

Recent form

Excelsior Maassluis

Sparta Rotterdam II

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.