· Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.07 for TOGB, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Excelsior Maassluis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Excelsior Maassluis win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Excelsior Maassluis home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
TOGB away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior Maassluis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.07 for TOGB, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–19.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Excelsior Maassluis
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vvsb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Blauw Geel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportlust '46 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Roosendaal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Achilles Veen · 3-2 (W)
TOGB
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Noordwijk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Lisse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Groene Ster · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs UDI '19 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · Excelsior Maassluis 3-0 TOGB (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior Maassluis 1-1 TOGB (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Excelsior Maassluis win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.