Stadion Woudestein · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.28 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Excelsior win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Excelsior home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ADO Den Haag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Excelsior and 1.28 for ADO Den Haag, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Excelsior
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 3-0 (W)
ADO Den Haag
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Excelsior win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.