Stadion Woudestein · Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
Excelsior vs Cambuur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.55 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Excelsior win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Excelsior home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cambuur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Excelsior and 1.55 for Cambuur, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Excelsior
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
Cambuur
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 15 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Excelsior win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.