Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.78 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Excelsior win

45.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Excelsior home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
GO Ahead Eagles away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Excelsior win45%

Draw21%

GO Ahead Eagles win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.1%
1–17.8%
2–27.2%
1–27.0%
3–15.6%

Recent form

Excelsior

2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 3-0 (W)

GO Ahead Eagles

2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-01T19:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-1 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2025-10-26T19:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2024-03-30T19:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-3 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2023-12-16T17:45:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-1 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2023-04-14T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 2-1 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2022-10-29T19:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-3 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
2021-05-12T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-1 GO Ahead Eagles (Eerste Divisie)
2020-10-31T13:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-0 GO Ahead Eagles (Eerste Divisie)
2019-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · Excelsior 2-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eerste Divisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Excelsior win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.