Stadion Woudestein · Referee D. Drost · Analysis updated 07:11 UTC
Excelsior W vs Feyenoord W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Excelsior W and 2.05 for Feyenoord W, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Feyenoord W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Feyenoord W win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Excelsior W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Feyenoord W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–36.8%
Recent form
Excelsior W
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda W · 2-0 (W)
Feyenoord W
- 2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vålerenga W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga W · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior W 0-3 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2026-01-18T15:45:00.000Z · Excelsior W 0-1 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Excelsior W 0-7 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-12-15T15:45:00.000Z · Excelsior W 3-5 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-03-02T15:30:00.000Z · Excelsior W 1-2 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-10-15T10:15:00.000Z · Excelsior W 1-0 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-04-23T10:15:00.000Z · Excelsior W 1-0 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2022-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · Excelsior W 1-2 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2022-03-25T18:30:00.000Z · Excelsior W 0-2 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2022-02-11T18:30:00.000Z · Excelsior W 2-3 Feyenoord W (Eredivisie Women)
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 21 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | De Graafschap W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | AZ W | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | ADO Den Haag W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 7 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Feyenoord W win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.