Exeter City vs Barnet Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.93 for Barnet, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Barnet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Barnet win

51.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Exeter City home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barnet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Exeter City and 1.93 for Barnet, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Exeter City win26%

Draw22%

Barnet win52%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–19.9%
1–29.5%
0–17.5%
0–27.2%
2–16.6%

Recent form

Exeter City

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford United · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol Rovers · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 2-2 (D)

Barnet

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Accrington ST · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Barnet win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.