St James Park · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.65 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 1.49. That distribution gives Exeter City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.9% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Exeter City home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fleetwood Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Exeter City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 37% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Exeter City and 0.65 for Fleetwood Town, a combined 1.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.4%
- 1–018.9%
- 0–114.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Exeter City
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol Rovers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 2-2 (D)
Fleetwood Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rochdale · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Oldham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnet · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.