St James Park · Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Exeter City vs Oxford United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.22 for Oxford United, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Exeter City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Exeter City home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oxford United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Exeter City
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol Rovers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 2-2 (D)
Oxford United
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Huddersfield · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-11T15:00:00.000Z · Exeter City 3-1 Oxford United (FA Cup)
- 2024-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · Exeter City 1-0 Oxford United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-27T11:30:00.000Z · Exeter City 1-2 Oxford United (League One)
- 2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Exeter City 0-3 Oxford United (League One)
- 2023-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Exeter City 1-0 Oxford United (League One)
- 2022-11-26T15:00:00.000Z · Exeter City 1-4 Oxford United (FA Cup)
- 2022-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · Exeter City 2-4 Oxford United (League One)
- 2019-12-04T19:00:00.000Z · Exeter City 0-0 Oxford United (EFL Trophy)
- 2016-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · Exeter City 2-4 Oxford United (EFL Trophy)
- 2016-02-23T19:45:00.000Z · Exeter City 1-4 Oxford United (League Two)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.