Exmouth vs Melksham Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Exmouth and 1.00 for Melksham Town, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Exmouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Exmouth win

57.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Exmouth home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Melksham Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Exmouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Exmouth and 1.00 for Melksham Town, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Exmouth win58%

Draw22%

Melksham Town win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–010.6%
1–110.6%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
3–06.2%

Recent form

Exmouth

2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Thame United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thame United · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Banbury United · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Banbury United · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartpury University · 1-4 (L)

Melksham Town

2026-07-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Yate Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Falmouth Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Hartpury University · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Frome Town	42	32	6	4	65	102
2	Portishead Town	42	30	5	7	73	95
3	Malvern Town	42	30	5	7	42	95
4	Winchester City	42	24	10	8	40	82
5	Shaftesbury Town	42	25	4	13	27	79
6	Bishop's Cleeve	42	23	9	10	18	78
7	Hartpury University	42	20	7	15	28	67
8	Exmouth	42	18	7	17	2	61
9	Larkhall Athletic	42	18	7	17	0	61
10	Westbury United	42	17	7	18	-3	58
11	Sporting Club Inkberrow	42	16	7	19	-14	54
12	Didcot Town	42	14	8	20	-17	50
13	Swindon Supermarine	42	13	11	18	2	50
14	Falmouth Town	42	13	10	19	-16	49
15	Bristol Manor Farm	42	12	12	18	-20	48
16	Bideford	42	13	9	20	-28	48
17	Melksham Town	42	11	12	19	-18	45
18	Mousehole	42	11	13	18	-10	45
19	Willand Rovers	42	11	10	21	-20	43
20	Bashley	42	10	7	25	-22	37
21	Brixham	42	10	6	26	-45	36
22	Tavistock	42	3	4	35	-84	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Exmouth win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.