· Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
Exmouth vs Thame United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Exmouth and 2.08 for Thame United, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Exmouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Exmouth home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thame United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Exmouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 20% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Exmouth and 2.08 for Thame United, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–26.7%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
Exmouth
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Thame United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thame United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Banbury United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Banbury United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartpury University · 1-4 (L)
Thame United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Exmouth · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exmouth · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading City · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.